Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Tied in Pennsylvania: Conservative Poll

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied in Pennsylvania, according to a conservative pollster.
The poll, conducted by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker between September 19 and 22, showed that Harris and Trump were tied on 48 percent each.
However, when “leaners” were included in the totals, Harris lead by one point, 50 percent to Trump’s 49 percent.
According to the poll, which surveyed 1,202 likely voters in the battleground state, Harris was leading across Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs, while Trump lead across northeastern, central and western Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, the poll showed Pennsylvania voters expressed clear preferences on economic policies.
“On the economy, 43 percent of poll respondents said that their view of Joe Biden’s economic policies made them less likely to support Harris, versus 30 percent who said those policies made them more likely to support her,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “In contrast, 50 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters believe Trump can be trusted more to improve America’s economic situation, versus 46 percent believing the same of Harris.”
The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
The economy is shaping up to be a key issue in this election, particularly in swing states. The most recent poll conducted by MassINC showed that jobs, wages and the economy was by far the most important issue for Pennsylvania voters, with 69 percent of respondents choosing it as their top issue.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Pennsylvania is a crucial state to win in the election, owing to its 19 electoral votes. Since 1976, it has chosen a Democrat for the White House eight times, including in 2020. In contrast, the state has chosen a Republican four times, including in 2016.
This year, polls show that the Democrats are on track to win Pennsylvania again, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showing that Harris is ahead by 1.3 points, on 48.2 percent to Trump’s 46.9 percent.
Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver’s forecast shows that Harris ahead by 1.5 points, while the RealClearPolitics poll tracker shows that Harris is ahead by a smaller margin of 0.6 points.
Individual polls have shown that the race in Pennsylvania is similarly close, with some showing Harris ahead by a small margin, while others having shown Trump ahead. Some have also shown the two candidates tied.
For example, the most recent polls from Emerson College and Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed Harris and Trump tied among likely voters, while MassINC’s poll, conducted between September 12 and 18, showed Harris 5 points ahead, just outside of the survey’s margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
The most recent poll to put Trump ahead was conducted by InsiderAdvantage between September 14 and 15, which showed he was 1 point ahead among 800 likely voters—a lead also within the margin of error.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model, Pennsylvania is most likely to be the tipping point state in this election, giving the winner of the Electoral College their 270th vote.
According to Silver, Harris needs to win the state, as well as Michigan and Wisconsin, in order to secure victory in November.
Both FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s models show Harris in the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Though the race is still close in both states.